2 Cyclones in Australia
- Thread starter Ironwood
- Start date
Scott Murray
Senior Member
We are getting closer and closer to being in the 'Watch' zone. Some great storms been generated in the NT aswell.
Scott Murray
Senior Member
Love it 
Scott Murray
Senior Member
Getting closer,
AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN[h=3]TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP[/h][h=3]Tropical Cyclone Nathan[/h]Issued at 6:09 am CST Sunday 22 March 2015. Refer to latest Tropical Cyclone Advice.
[h=2]Community Threat[/h]Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
[h=2]Past Cyclone Details[/h]Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement
[h=2]Current Cyclone Details[/h]Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Gale Force Winds
[h=2]Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)[/h]Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.
Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.
This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
[h=4]Headline:[/h]Tropical Cyclone Nathan expected to make landfall within the next 6 hours on the northeast Arnhem coast
[h=4]Areas affected:[/h]Warning zone: Goulburn Island to Groote Eylandt including Maningrida, Milingimbi, Elcho Island, Gapuwiyak, Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt .
Watch zone: Goulburn Island to Croker Island, including Goulburn Island .
[h=4]Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 5:30 am CST:[/h]Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 12.9 degrees South, 137.2 degrees East , 90 kilometres south southeast of Nhulunbuy and 140 kilometres northeast of Alyangula .
Movement: west northwest at 16 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Cyclone Nathan has intensified into a category 2 system and is located just offshore from the northeast Arnhem coast. Cyclone Nathan will continue moving west northwest with the DESTRUCTIVE CORE expected to move onto the coast between Cape Shield and Nhulunbuy during the next few hours.
Cyclone Nathan will continue crossing northeast Arnhem during today then begin to weaken as it moves westward parallel to the Top End north coast during Monday.
[h=4]Hazards:[/h]GALES, with gusts up to 120 kilometres per hour, are likely to be occuring along the coast between Nhulunbuy and Cape Shield. Gales are expected to extend to Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt this morning and extend further to Elcho Island, inlcuding Gapuwiyak later this morning and afternoon. Gales are expected to extend further west to Maningrida during Sunday afternoon or evening and may extend west to Crocker Island overnight on Sunday or Monday morning.
DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 155 kilometres per hour, extending to approximately 40 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone, is expected to impact coastal and adjacent inland locations between Nhulunbuy and Cape Shield this morning, extending to Gapuwiyak later this morning and possibly to Elcho Island depending on how quickly the cyclone weakens after landfall.
HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop across coastal parts of eastern Arnhem Land as the cyclone approaches during Sunday.
Coastal residents between Groote Eylandt and Nhulunbuy are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.
[h=4]Recommended Action:[/h]The Territory Controller advises residents from Groote Eylandt to Nhulunbuy to TAKE SHELTER NOW.
DO NOT drive or move about outside, you will be advised by the Territory Controller when it is safe to do so.
REPEATING: CONDITIONS from Groote Eylandt to Nhulunbuy ARE NOW AT A DANGEROUS LEVEL, TAKE SHELTER NOW.
The Territory Controller advises residents from Gapuwiyak to Maningrida, including Elcho Island and Milingimbi that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter or strong building to use.
You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.
For residents from Maningrida to Croker Island, including Goulburn Island, the Territory Controller advises that now is the time to finalise your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.
If you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation, you should determine NOW where you will shelter. This may include arranging to shelter with family, friends or in public emergency shelters, or strong buildings, where available in your community.
This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.
Private Sector businesses and organisations still open at this time are strongly advised to consider securing and closing their premises. Employers are reminded of their Duty of Care to ensure the safety of any employees still at work.
Details:
Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye
[h=4]Next Issue[/h]The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 7:00 am CST Sunday
AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN[h=3]TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP[/h][h=3]Tropical Cyclone Nathan[/h]Issued at 6:09 am CST Sunday 22 March 2015. Refer to latest Tropical Cyclone Advice.
[h=2]Community Threat[/h]Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
Gales from 24-48 hours
[h=2]Current Cyclone Details[/h]Current Location and Intensity Number
[h=2]Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)[/h]Forecast Location and Intensity Number
The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.
Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.
This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
[h=4]Headline:[/h]Tropical Cyclone Nathan expected to make landfall within the next 6 hours on the northeast Arnhem coast
[h=4]Areas affected:[/h]Warning zone: Goulburn Island to Groote Eylandt including Maningrida, Milingimbi, Elcho Island, Gapuwiyak, Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt .
Watch zone: Goulburn Island to Croker Island, including Goulburn Island .
[h=4]Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 5:30 am CST:[/h]Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 12.9 degrees South, 137.2 degrees East , 90 kilometres south southeast of Nhulunbuy and 140 kilometres northeast of Alyangula .
Movement: west northwest at 16 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Cyclone Nathan has intensified into a category 2 system and is located just offshore from the northeast Arnhem coast. Cyclone Nathan will continue moving west northwest with the DESTRUCTIVE CORE expected to move onto the coast between Cape Shield and Nhulunbuy during the next few hours.
Cyclone Nathan will continue crossing northeast Arnhem during today then begin to weaken as it moves westward parallel to the Top End north coast during Monday.
[h=4]Hazards:[/h]GALES, with gusts up to 120 kilometres per hour, are likely to be occuring along the coast between Nhulunbuy and Cape Shield. Gales are expected to extend to Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt this morning and extend further to Elcho Island, inlcuding Gapuwiyak later this morning and afternoon. Gales are expected to extend further west to Maningrida during Sunday afternoon or evening and may extend west to Crocker Island overnight on Sunday or Monday morning.
DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 155 kilometres per hour, extending to approximately 40 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone, is expected to impact coastal and adjacent inland locations between Nhulunbuy and Cape Shield this morning, extending to Gapuwiyak later this morning and possibly to Elcho Island depending on how quickly the cyclone weakens after landfall.
HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop across coastal parts of eastern Arnhem Land as the cyclone approaches during Sunday.
Coastal residents between Groote Eylandt and Nhulunbuy are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.
[h=4]Recommended Action:[/h]The Territory Controller advises residents from Groote Eylandt to Nhulunbuy to TAKE SHELTER NOW.
DO NOT drive or move about outside, you will be advised by the Territory Controller when it is safe to do so.
REPEATING: CONDITIONS from Groote Eylandt to Nhulunbuy ARE NOW AT A DANGEROUS LEVEL, TAKE SHELTER NOW.
The Territory Controller advises residents from Gapuwiyak to Maningrida, including Elcho Island and Milingimbi that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter or strong building to use.
You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.
For residents from Maningrida to Croker Island, including Goulburn Island, the Territory Controller advises that now is the time to finalise your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.
If you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation, you should determine NOW where you will shelter. This may include arranging to shelter with family, friends or in public emergency shelters, or strong buildings, where available in your community.
This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.
Private Sector businesses and organisations still open at this time are strongly advised to consider securing and closing their premises. Employers are reminded of their Duty of Care to ensure the safety of any employees still at work.
Details:
| Time (CST) | Intensity Category | Latitude (decimal deg.) | Longitude (decimal deg.) | Estimated Position Accuracy (km) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0hr | 6 am March 22 | 2 | 12.9S | 137.2E | 20 |
| +6hr | 12 pm March 22 | 2 | 12.4S | 136.3E | 80 |
| +12hr | 6 pm March 22 | 1 | 11.9S | 135.5E | 100 |
| +18hr | 12 am March 23 | 1 | 11.4S | 134.9E | 125 |
| +24hr | 6 am March 23 | 1 | 11.1S | 134.4E | 145 |
| +36hr | 6 pm March 23 | tropical low | 10.7S | 133.6E | 185 |
| +48hr | 6 am March 24 | tropical low | 10.8S | 133.0E | 220 |
| +60hr | 6 pm March 24 | tropical low | 11.3S | 132.4E | 255 |
| +72hr | 6 am March 25 | tropical low | 11.8S | 131.9E | 290 |
[h=4]Next Issue[/h]The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 7:00 am CST Sunday
Scott Murray
Senior Member
I live in Jabiru, so we could be getting ALOT of rain soon or nothing lol
AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN[h=3]TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP[/h][h=3]Tropical Cyclone Nathan[/h]Issued at 7:12 am CST Sunday 22 March 2015. Refer to latest Tropical Cyclone Advice.
[h=2]Community Threat[/h]Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
[h=2]Past Cyclone Details[/h]Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement
[h=2]Current Cyclone Details[/h]Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Gale Force Winds
[h=2]Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)[/h]Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.
Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.
This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
[h=4]Headline:[/h]Gales likely along the coast between Nhulunbuy and Cape Shield.
[h=4]Areas affected:[/h]Warning zone: Goulburn Island to Groote Eylandt including Maningrida, Milingimbi, Elcho Island, Gapuwiyak, Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt .
Watch zone: Goulburn Island to Croker Island, including Goulburn Island .
[h=4]Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 6:30 am CST:[/h]Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 12.8 degrees South, 137.1 degrees East , 80 kilometres south southeast of Nhulunbuy and 140 kilometres north northeast of Alyangula .
Movement: west northwest at 14 kilometres per hour .
The centre of Tropical Cyclone Nathan is located just offshore from the northeast Arnhem coast. Cyclone Nathan will continue moving west northwest with the DESTRUCTIVE CORE expected to move onto the coast between Cape Shield and Nhulunbuy during the next few hours.
Cyclone Nathan will continue crossing northeast Arnhem during today then begin to weaken as it moves westward parallel to the Top End north coast during Monday.
[h=4]Hazards:[/h]GALES, with gusts up to 120 kilometres per hour, are likely to be occuring along the coast between Nhulunbuy and Cape Shield. Gales are expected to extend to Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt this morning and extend further to Elcho Island, inlcuding Gapuwiyak later this morning and afternoon. Gales are expected to extend further west to Maningrida during Sunday afternoon or evening and may extend west to Crocker Island overnight on Sunday or Monday morning.
DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 155 kilometres per hour, extending to approximately 40 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone, is expected to impact coastal and adjacent inland locations between Nhulunbuy and Cape Shield this morning, extending to Gapuwiyak later this morning and possibly to Elcho Island depending on how quickly the cyclone weakens after landfall.
HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop across coastal parts of eastern Arnhem Land as the cyclone approaches during Sunday.
Coastal residents between Groote Eylandt and Nhulunbuy are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.
[h=4]Recommended Action:[/h]The Territory Controller advises residents from Groote Eylandt to Nhulunbuy to TAKE SHELTER NOW.
DO NOT drive or move about outside, you will be advised by the Territory Controller when it is safe to do so.
REPEATING: CONDITIONS from Groote Eylandt to Nhulunbuy ARE NOW AT A DANGEROUS LEVEL, TAKE SHELTER NOW.
The Territory Controller advises residents from Gapuwiyak to Maningrida, including Elcho Island and Milingimbi that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter or strong building to use.
You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.
For residents from Maningrida to Croker Island, including Goulburn Island, the Territory Controller advises that now is the time to finalise your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.
If you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation, you should determine NOW where you will shelter. This may include arranging to shelter with family, friends or in public emergency shelters, or strong buildings, where available in your community.
This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.
Private Sector businesses and organisations still open at this time are strongly advised to consider securing and closing their premises. Employers are reminded of their Duty of Care to ensure the safety of any employees still at work.
Details:
Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye
[h=4]Next Issue[/h]The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 8:00 am CST Sunday
AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN[h=3]TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP[/h][h=3]Tropical Cyclone Nathan[/h]Issued at 7:12 am CST Sunday 22 March 2015. Refer to latest Tropical Cyclone Advice.
[h=2]Community Threat[/h]Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
Gales from 24-48 hours
[h=2]Current Cyclone Details[/h]Current Location and Intensity Number
[h=2]Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)[/h]Forecast Location and Intensity Number
The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.
Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.
This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
[h=4]Headline:[/h]Gales likely along the coast between Nhulunbuy and Cape Shield.
[h=4]Areas affected:[/h]Warning zone: Goulburn Island to Groote Eylandt including Maningrida, Milingimbi, Elcho Island, Gapuwiyak, Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt .
Watch zone: Goulburn Island to Croker Island, including Goulburn Island .
[h=4]Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 6:30 am CST:[/h]Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 12.8 degrees South, 137.1 degrees East , 80 kilometres south southeast of Nhulunbuy and 140 kilometres north northeast of Alyangula .
Movement: west northwest at 14 kilometres per hour .
The centre of Tropical Cyclone Nathan is located just offshore from the northeast Arnhem coast. Cyclone Nathan will continue moving west northwest with the DESTRUCTIVE CORE expected to move onto the coast between Cape Shield and Nhulunbuy during the next few hours.
Cyclone Nathan will continue crossing northeast Arnhem during today then begin to weaken as it moves westward parallel to the Top End north coast during Monday.
[h=4]Hazards:[/h]GALES, with gusts up to 120 kilometres per hour, are likely to be occuring along the coast between Nhulunbuy and Cape Shield. Gales are expected to extend to Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt this morning and extend further to Elcho Island, inlcuding Gapuwiyak later this morning and afternoon. Gales are expected to extend further west to Maningrida during Sunday afternoon or evening and may extend west to Crocker Island overnight on Sunday or Monday morning.
DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 155 kilometres per hour, extending to approximately 40 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone, is expected to impact coastal and adjacent inland locations between Nhulunbuy and Cape Shield this morning, extending to Gapuwiyak later this morning and possibly to Elcho Island depending on how quickly the cyclone weakens after landfall.
HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop across coastal parts of eastern Arnhem Land as the cyclone approaches during Sunday.
Coastal residents between Groote Eylandt and Nhulunbuy are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.
[h=4]Recommended Action:[/h]The Territory Controller advises residents from Groote Eylandt to Nhulunbuy to TAKE SHELTER NOW.
DO NOT drive or move about outside, you will be advised by the Territory Controller when it is safe to do so.
REPEATING: CONDITIONS from Groote Eylandt to Nhulunbuy ARE NOW AT A DANGEROUS LEVEL, TAKE SHELTER NOW.
The Territory Controller advises residents from Gapuwiyak to Maningrida, including Elcho Island and Milingimbi that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter or strong building to use.
You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.
For residents from Maningrida to Croker Island, including Goulburn Island, the Territory Controller advises that now is the time to finalise your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.
If you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation, you should determine NOW where you will shelter. This may include arranging to shelter with family, friends or in public emergency shelters, or strong buildings, where available in your community.
This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.
Private Sector businesses and organisations still open at this time are strongly advised to consider securing and closing their premises. Employers are reminded of their Duty of Care to ensure the safety of any employees still at work.
Details:
| Time (CST) | Intensity Category | Latitude (decimal deg.) | Longitude (decimal deg.) | Estimated Position Accuracy (km) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0hr | 7 am March 22 | 2 | 12.8S | 137.1E | 20 |
| +6hr | 1 pm March 22 | 2 | 12.4S | 136.3E | 20 |
| +12hr | 7 pm March 22 | 1 | 11.8S | 135.6E | 45 |
| +18hr | 1 am March 23 | 1 | 11.3S | 135.1E | 70 |
| +24hr | 7 am March 23 | 1 | 11.0S | 134.6E | 90 |
| +36hr | 7 pm March 23 | 1 | 10.7S | 133.9E | 125 |
| +48hr | 7 am March 24 | tropical low | 10.9S | 133.4E | 165 |
| +60hr | 7 pm March 24 | tropical low | 11.6S | 132.7E | 200 |
| +72hr | 7 am March 25 | tropical low | 12.3S | 132.2E | 235 |
[h=4]Next Issue[/h]The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 8:00 am CST Sunday
Scott Murray
Senior Member
AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN[h=3]TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP[/h][h=3]Tropical Cyclone Nathan[/h]Issued at 4:05 pm CST Sunday 22 March 2015. Refer to latest Tropical Cyclone Advice.
[h=2]Community Threat[/h]Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
[h=2]Past Cyclone Details[/h]Past Location and Intensity Number
Past Track and Movement
[h=2]Current Cyclone Details[/h]Current Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Winds
Destructive Winds
Gale Force Winds
[h=2]Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)[/h]Forecast Location and Intensity Number
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
Destructive Wind Boundary
Gale Force Wind Boundary
Most Likely Future Track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.
Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.
This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
[h=4]Headline:[/h]Tropical Cyclone Nathan continues to move northwest across Arnhem Bay, west of Nhulunbuy
[h=4]Areas affected:[/h]Warning zone: Croker Island to Cape Shield, including Goulburn Island, Maningrida, Milingimbi, Elcho Island, Ramingining, Gapuwiyak and Nhulunbuy.
Watch zone: Croker Island to Cape Don and Point Stuart to Gunbalanya.
[h=4]Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 3:30 pm CST:[/h]Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 12.2 degrees South, 136.1 degrees East , 75 kilometres west of Nhulunbuy and 55 kilometres east southeast of Galiwinku .
Movement: west northwest at 15 kilometres per hour .
The centre of Tropical Cyclone Nathan is moving across Arnhem Bay, west of Nhulunbuy. Cyclone Nathan will continue moving west northwest with the DESTRUCTIVE CORE approaching Elcho Island late this afternoon.
Cyclone Nathan is expected to slowly weaken as it moves westward parallel to the Top End north coast during Monday and Tuesday.
[h=4]Hazards:[/h]DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 150 kilometres per hour, extending to approximately 40 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone, are currently being experienced over the Gove Peninsula. Destructive winds will extend west to Gapuwiyak and Elcho Island this evening.
GALES, with gusts up to 120 kilometres per hour, are occuring over northeast Arnhem Land, extending west to Elcho Island. Gales are expected to extend further west to Milingimbi and Maningrida during this evening and may extend west to Croker Island overnight or on Monday morning if the system takes a more westerly track. Gales may extend further west to Cape Don and Point Stuart later on Monday . Winds are expected to ease below gale force this later this evening along the east Arnhem Land coast.
HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, across coastal parts of northern Arnhem Land as the cyclone moves westwards.
A STORM TIDE is expected between Elcho Island and Cape Shield. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.
[h=4]Recommended Action:[/h]The Territory Controller advises that communities currently in shelter should remain until advised by local authorities that the ALL CLEAR has been given.
DO NOT drive or move about outside, you will be advised by the Territory Controller, when it is safe to do so.
REPEATING: CONDITIONS ARE STILL AT A DANGEROUS LEVEL, REMAIN IN SHELTER.
Residents from Elcho Island to Milingimbi are advised that the PUBLIC SHELTER IS NOW OPEN at Elcho Island, Milingimbi, Nhulunbuy and Gapuwiyak.
Now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter area. If you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should PROCEED IMMEDIATELY to shelter with family, friends, or one of the local emergency shelters. Take your emergency kit with you.
A CYCLONE IS APPROACHING AND THE PUBLIC SHELTER IN THE COMMUNITY OF MILINGIMBI IS NOW OPEN. MAKE YOUR DECISION QUICKLY AS WINDS ARE SHORTLY EXPECTED TO REACH A DANGEROUS LEVEL.
Residents from Milingimbi to Goulburn Island, including Maningrida and Milingimbi, are advised that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter or strong building to use.
You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.
For residents under Watch from Croker Island to Cape Don, including Croker Island and Gunbalanya to Point Stuart.
Communities under Watch are advised that now is the time to finalise your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.
If you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation, you should determine NOW where you will shelter. This may include arranging to shelter with family, friends or in public emergency shelters, or strong buildings, where available in your community.
This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.
Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.
Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at secureNT.
Details:
Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye
[h=4]Next Issue[/h]The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Sunday
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN[h=3]TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP[/h][h=3]Tropical Cyclone Nathan[/h]Issued at 4:05 pm CST Sunday 22 March 2015. Refer to latest Tropical Cyclone Advice.
[h=2]Community Threat[/h]Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
Gales from 24-48 hours
[h=2]Current Cyclone Details[/h]Current Location and Intensity Number
[h=2]Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)[/h]Forecast Location and Intensity Number
The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.
Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.
This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
[h=4]Headline:[/h]Tropical Cyclone Nathan continues to move northwest across Arnhem Bay, west of Nhulunbuy
[h=4]Areas affected:[/h]Warning zone: Croker Island to Cape Shield, including Goulburn Island, Maningrida, Milingimbi, Elcho Island, Ramingining, Gapuwiyak and Nhulunbuy.
Watch zone: Croker Island to Cape Don and Point Stuart to Gunbalanya.
[h=4]Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 3:30 pm CST:[/h]Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 12.2 degrees South, 136.1 degrees East , 75 kilometres west of Nhulunbuy and 55 kilometres east southeast of Galiwinku .
Movement: west northwest at 15 kilometres per hour .
The centre of Tropical Cyclone Nathan is moving across Arnhem Bay, west of Nhulunbuy. Cyclone Nathan will continue moving west northwest with the DESTRUCTIVE CORE approaching Elcho Island late this afternoon.
Cyclone Nathan is expected to slowly weaken as it moves westward parallel to the Top End north coast during Monday and Tuesday.
[h=4]Hazards:[/h]DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 150 kilometres per hour, extending to approximately 40 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone, are currently being experienced over the Gove Peninsula. Destructive winds will extend west to Gapuwiyak and Elcho Island this evening.
GALES, with gusts up to 120 kilometres per hour, are occuring over northeast Arnhem Land, extending west to Elcho Island. Gales are expected to extend further west to Milingimbi and Maningrida during this evening and may extend west to Croker Island overnight or on Monday morning if the system takes a more westerly track. Gales may extend further west to Cape Don and Point Stuart later on Monday . Winds are expected to ease below gale force this later this evening along the east Arnhem Land coast.
HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, across coastal parts of northern Arnhem Land as the cyclone moves westwards.
A STORM TIDE is expected between Elcho Island and Cape Shield. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.
[h=4]Recommended Action:[/h]The Territory Controller advises that communities currently in shelter should remain until advised by local authorities that the ALL CLEAR has been given.
DO NOT drive or move about outside, you will be advised by the Territory Controller, when it is safe to do so.
REPEATING: CONDITIONS ARE STILL AT A DANGEROUS LEVEL, REMAIN IN SHELTER.
Residents from Elcho Island to Milingimbi are advised that the PUBLIC SHELTER IS NOW OPEN at Elcho Island, Milingimbi, Nhulunbuy and Gapuwiyak.
Now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter area. If you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should PROCEED IMMEDIATELY to shelter with family, friends, or one of the local emergency shelters. Take your emergency kit with you.
A CYCLONE IS APPROACHING AND THE PUBLIC SHELTER IN THE COMMUNITY OF MILINGIMBI IS NOW OPEN. MAKE YOUR DECISION QUICKLY AS WINDS ARE SHORTLY EXPECTED TO REACH A DANGEROUS LEVEL.
Residents from Milingimbi to Goulburn Island, including Maningrida and Milingimbi, are advised that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter or strong building to use.
You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.
For residents under Watch from Croker Island to Cape Don, including Croker Island and Gunbalanya to Point Stuart.
Communities under Watch are advised that now is the time to finalise your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.
If you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation, you should determine NOW where you will shelter. This may include arranging to shelter with family, friends or in public emergency shelters, or strong buildings, where available in your community.
This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.
Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.
Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at secureNT.
Details:
| Time (CST) | Intensity Category | Latitude (decimal deg.) | Longitude (decimal deg.) | Estimated Position Accuracy (km) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0hr | 4 pm March 22 | 2 | 12.2S | 136.1E | 20 |
| +6hr | 10 pm March 22 | 2 | 11.7S | 135.5E | 40 |
| +12hr | 4 am March 23 | 3 | 11.3S | 134.9E | 65 |
| +18hr | 10 am March 23 | 3 | 11.0S | 134.4E | 85 |
| +24hr | 4 pm March 23 | 3 | 10.9S | 134.0E | 110 |
| +36hr | 4 am March 24 | 2 | 11.1S | 133.5E | 145 |
| +48hr | 4 pm March 24 | 1 | 11.7S | 132.9E | 180 |
| +60hr | 4 am March 25 | tropical low | 12.3S | 132.4E | 220 |
| +72hr | 4 pm March 25 | tropical low | 12.9S | 131.7E | 255 |
[h=4]Next Issue[/h]The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Sunday
Scott Murray
Senior Member
Yeah it has stayed a CAT 2 over land though so it will be interesting to see what he does over the next day.TC Nathan has been persistent, that's for sure. probably just as well it's a small one
Scott Murray
Senior Member
We are now on Cyclone watch
We are now on Cyclone watch
Please refer to post #43 .
Scott Murray
Senior Member
Yeah been getting a bit windier now but nothing bad.
Will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings.
They seem to be getting pretty good at predicting the path of these things.
If it does follow the predicted path, you will be getting the winds on the edge of a cat-2 cyclone tomorrow afternoon.
Scott Murray
Senior Member
Yeah but Nathan has been going around in circles so it will be interesting to see where he goes, just checked out earth :: an animated map of global wind, weather, and ocean conditions and the centre appears to be over land but I dont know how accurate it is, have around half an hr to wait for next update.
MetEye on the BOM website looks to be still over water, last update was 6 minutes ago @ 8.19pm AEST.
Scott Murray
Senior Member
Latest say it is still over water, but it does seem to be dying.
sonicbuffalo_RIP
Senior Member
Good luck Scott....batten down the hatches!
Scott Murray
Senior Member
All good