2 Cyclones in Australia

[Vixen]

Looks like it is the other way around and good to know the upside down Cat 5 is less intense. Plucked this from the BOM website.

View attachment 141394

It's more to do with how the US calculates mean windspeed. It is averaged over 1 min where Aust is averaged over 10 mins ( I think that's right anyway). Cat 5 is scarey whichever way it's done

Anyway I really prefer to use this system of categorising

 

[Eyelight]

It's more to do with how the US calculates mean windspeed. It is averaged over 1 min where Aust is averaged over 10 mins ( I think that's right anyway). Cat 5 is scarey whichever way it's done

Anyway I really prefer to use this system of categorising

That's too good. I'm still grinning.

 

[Ironwood]

Well we missed out the wind and rain here in Mackay.
Residents further south aren't so lucky, it crossed the coast about an hour ago.

 

[Scott Murray]

Well we missed out the wind and rain here in Mackay.
Residents further south aren't so lucky, it crossed the coast about an hour ago.

Yes marcia is a beast. Hope everyone stays safe.

Seems we missed out aswell, not even any rain or lightning hmmmm not impressed.

 

[Ironwood]

Yes marcia is a beast. Hope everyone stays safe.

Seems we missed out aswell, not even any rain or lightning hmmmm not impressed.

Glad you faired well too Scott.

Bought my camera to work today, no cyclone shots though.
Oh well, I am still chasing a shot for this weeks 52, maybe I'll find something.

 

[Ironwood]

Cyclone Marcia is continuing its path down the Queensland coast, it crossed this morning as a cat 5, it has weakened throughout the day, and is now a cat 2. It is still damaging older houses and dumping rain on the affected areas.

We have friends in Yepoon, they lost trees in their yard and 2 rollerdoors blew in, but they are doing OK.

This is what the map looked like when I got up this morning to go to work, it was a relief to see it had turned away from us, but gave a feeling of dread for those to the south of us.

The current map shows it is down to cat 2.

Luckily where it crossed is lowly populated, by the time it reached any of the more populated areas it had lost some of its intensity.

The south-east is bracing for heavy rains tonight. @Vixen how are things looking down your way ?

 

[Scott Murray]

Our cyclone is dead.

 

[Ironwood]

Here is a link to the ABC News site with photos Tropical Cyclone Marcia - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

 

[Ironwood]

Our cyclone is dead.

Thats good news Scott.
I just saw on the news it did some damage to some of the communities near the coast and on the Islands, but at least no one was hurt.

 

[Scott Murray]

Thats good news Scott.
I just saw on the news it did some damage to some of the communities near the coast and on the Islands, but at least no one was hurt.

Yes all I heard was the only fatality was a dog, sad but happens. And i am thinking some natives may have been harmed aswell.

 

[Lawrence]

These updates are reassuring and really cool

 

[Ironwood]

Yes all I heard was the only fatality was a dog, sad but happens. And i am thinking some natives may have been harmed aswell.

They didn't mention any of that on the channel 7 news just now, but that doesn't surprise me, they were probably reporting from Darwin .

If there were any camps like the ones I am familiar with from when I lived up on Cape York, I would be amazed if there were no injuries from a cyclone passing through.

 

[Vixen]

It's good that damage has been less than feared but the authorities always paint the darkest picture, I guess to make us all feel better afterwards It is good that they take no chances these days and evacuate.

Down the coast in SEQ there have been lots of instances of flash flooding and evacuations. I have to say though that things were handled well with sandbags being made available to all low lying areas. All schools in my area at least were closed today with forecast possible rain of up to 400mm. As it happens we've had 100mm (4 inches) since 9am, and it seems to have stopped raining for the first time since yesterday. We now await the effects of TC Marcia which is forecast to drop up to 300mm rain on us over the weekend. We have localised flooding. The river has come up over 2m but needs to hit nearer 5m before it breaks it's banks, so a lull in the rain is all good news

 

[Vixen]

and here we go again.....australia cyclone sandwich

earth :: an animated map of global wind, weather, and ocean conditions

That website is cool.

 

[Scott Murray]

and here we go again.....australia cyclone sandwich

earth :: an animated map of global wind, weather, and ocean conditions

That website is cool.

Yeah watching them, am thinking of all on Vanuatu right now though...

 

[Ironwood]

Hey [MENTION=9753]Scott Murray[/MENTION] , cyclone heading your way. It just finished crossing Cape York, now into the Gulf and heading for NT.

 

[Scott Murray]

Hey @Scott Murray , cyclone heading your way. It just finished crossing Cape York, now into the Gulf and heading for NT.

Thanks mate, yeah watching it closely to see what it does once it enters the GOC and if it intensifies much and if it continues course or swings SW as I think it may, Elcho Island does not need another direct hit as they are still recovering from Cyclone Lam.

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.
Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.
This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

[h=4]Headline:[/h]Cyclone Nathan is expected to impact the east coast of Top End early Sunday morning as a category 2 cyclone.

[h=4]Areas affected:[/h]Warning zone: Nhulunbuy to Port Roper (Northern Territory), Kowanyama to Aurukun (Queensland).
Watch zone: Goulburn Island to Nhulunbuy.

[h=4]Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 3:30 am CST:[/h]Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 14.1 degrees South, 141.4 degrees East , 20 kilometres south southwest of Cape Keerweer and 160 kilometres north northwest of Kowanyama .
Movement: west northwest at 15 kilometres per hour .
Tropical cyclone Nathan is currently a weak category 1 system, and is moving westward into the Gulf of Carpentaria near Cape Keerweer.

Tropical cyclone Nathan will continue to move west across the Gulf of Carpentaria and intensify as it heads towards the east Arnhem land coast.

[h=4]Hazards:[/h]GALES, with gusts to 90 kilometres per hour, currently extend out to approximately 65 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone, and are expected to continue this morning about western Cape York Peninsula between Aurukun and Kowanyama in Queensland. These conditions will ease as the cyclone moves further away into the Gulf of Carpentaria during Saturday.

GALES, with gusts to 125 kilometres per hour, are expected to impact Groote Eylandt and possibly extend to coastal and adjacent inland locations between Nhulunbuy and Port Roper in the Northern Territory early Sunday morning. Gales are expected to extend further west along the north coast between Nhulunbuy and Milingimbi later Sunday morning to Sunday afternoon and may extend further west to Goulburn Island overnight on Sunday or early on Monday.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 155 kilometres per hour, extending to approximately 150 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone, may impact Groote Eylandt as well as coastal and adjacent inland locations between Nhulunbuy and Port Roper from Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, will continue across parts of western Cape York Peninsula this morning and will clear later this morning as the cyclone moves away.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop across eastern Arnhem Land as the cyclone approaches overnight Saturday and Sunday morning.

Tides on the western Cape York Peninsula coast may be above normal this morning, particularly north of the cyclone's track, but are not expected to exceed the highest tide of the year.


[h=4]Recommended Action:[/h]For Queensland:
People in coastal areas between Aurukun and Kowanyama should remain inside until the cyclone has passed and listen to the next advice.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).


For Northern Territory:
The Territory Controller advises residents from Nhulunbuy to Port Roper including Nhulunbuy, Cape Shield, Groote Eylandt, Numbulwar and Port Roper, that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter or strong building to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to finalise your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

If you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation, you should determine NOW where you will shelter. This may include arranging to shelter with family, friends or in public emergency shelters, or strong buildings, where available in your community.

This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at secureNT.

Details:

	Time (CST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 am March 21	1	14.1S	141.4E	35
+6hr	10 am March 21	1	14.0S	140.6E	50
+12hr	4 pm March 21	1	13.7S	139.6E	70
+18hr	10 pm March 21	2	13.4S	138.7E	95
+24hr	4 am March 22	2	13.1S	137.7E	120
+36hr	4 pm March 22	1	12.4S	136.0E	155
+48hr	4 am March 23	1	11.8S	134.4E	190
+60hr	4 pm March 23	tropical low	11.4S	133.0E	230
+72hr	4 am March 24	tropical low	11.4S	131.7E	265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye


[h=4]Next Issue[/h]The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 7:30 am CST Saturday

 

[Scott Murray]

Up date...

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN[h=3]TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP[/h][h=3]Tropical Cyclone Nathan[/h]Issued at 7:34 am CST Saturday 21 March 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 79.

[h=2]Community Threat[/h]Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours

Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours

[h=2]Past Cyclone Details[/h]Past Location and Intensity Number

Past Track and Movement

[h=2]Current Cyclone Details[/h]Current Location and Intensity Number

Very Destructive Winds

Destructive Winds

Gale Force Winds

[h=2]Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)[/h]Forecast Location and Intensity Number

Very Destructive Wind Boundary

Destructive Wind Boundary

Gale Force Wind Boundary

Most Likely Future Track

Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.
Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.
This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

[h=4]Headline:[/h]Cyclone Nathan is moving away from Cape York, expected to impact the east coast of the Top End early on Sunday

[h=4]Areas affected:[/h]Warning zone: Nhulunbuy to Port Roper, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt (Northern Territory) and Pormpuraaw to Aurukun (Queensland).
Watch zone: Goulburn Island to Nhulunbuy, including Elcho Island and Maningrida.

[h=4]Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 6:30 am CST:[/h]Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 13.9 degrees South, 140.8 degrees East , 70 kilometres west of Cape Keerweer and 475 kilometres east southeast of Nhulunbuy .
Movement: west northwest at 19 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Cyclone Nathan is currently a weak category 1 system located offshore from Cape Keerweer in the Gulf of Carpentaria and is moving steadily west northwest.

Tropical cyclone Nathan will continue to move across the Gulf of Carpentaria today and intensify as it heads towards the east Arnhem land coast, making landfall on Sunday morning as a category 2 system.

[h=4]Hazards:[/h]GALES, with gusts to 90 kilometres per hour, currently extend out to approximately 75 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone, and are expected to continue for the next few hours about western Cape York Peninsula between Aurukun and Pormpuraaw in Queensland. These conditions will ease as the cyclone moves further away into the Gulf of Carpentaria.

GALES, with gusts to 125 kilometres per hour, are expected to impact Groote Eylandt and possibly extend to coastal and adjacent inland locations between Nhulunbuy and Numbulwar in the Northern Territory early Sunday morning. Gales may extend southwards to Port Roper if the cyclone takes a more westerly track. Gales are expected to extend further west along the north coast between Nhulunbuy and Milingimbi later Sunday morning to Sunday afternoon and may extend further west to Goulburn Island overnight on Sunday or early on Monday.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 155 kilometres per hour, extending to approximately 150 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone, may impact Groote Eylandt as well as coastal and adjacent inland locations between Nhulunbuy and Port Roper from Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, will continue across parts of western Cape York Peninsula this morning and will clear later this morning as the cyclone moves away.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop across eastern Arnhem Land as the cyclone approaches overnight Saturday and Sunday morning.

Tides on the western Cape York Peninsula coast may be above normal this morning, particularly north of the cyclone's track, but are not expected to exceed the highest tide of the year.

[h=4]Recommended Action:[/h]For Queensland:

People in coastal areas between Aurukun and Pormpuraaw should remain inside until the cyclone has passed and listen to the next advice.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

For Northern Territory:

The Territory Controller advises residents from Nhulunbuy to Port Roper including Nhulunbuy, Cape Shield, Groote Eylandt, Numbulwar and Port Roper, that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter or strong building to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to finalise your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

If you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation, you should determine NOW where you will shelter. This may include arranging to shelter with family, friends or in public emergency shelters, or strong buildings, where available in your community.

This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at secureNT.

Details:

	Time (CST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	7 am March 21	1	13.9S	140.8E	45
+6hr	1 pm March 21	1	13.7S	139.9E	70
+12hr	7 pm March 21	1	13.5S	139.0E	90
+18hr	1 am March 22	2	13.2S	138.1E	115
+24hr	7 am March 22	2	12.8S	137.1E	135
+36hr	7 pm March 22	1	11.8S	135.5E	175
+48hr	7 am March 23	1	11.1S	134.3E	210
+60hr	7 pm March 23	tropical low	10.8S	133.3E	245
+72hr	7 am March 24	tropical low	10.8S	132.6E	280

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye


[h=4]Next Issue[/h]The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 am CST Saturday

 

[Ironwood]

The radar has it sitting a bit higher than I had expected it to be, looks like Weipa and Arukun are copping the rain on the outer edge of it at the moment,

 

[Scott Murray]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN[h=3]TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP[/h][h=3]Tropical Cyclone Nathan[/h]Issued at 1:49 pm CST Saturday 21 March 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 81.

[h=2]Community Threat[/h]Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours

Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours

[h=2]Past Cyclone Details[/h]Past Location and Intensity Number

Past Track and Movement

[h=2]Current Cyclone Details[/h]Current Location and Intensity Number

Very Destructive Winds

Destructive Winds

Gale Force Winds

[h=2]Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)[/h]Forecast Location and Intensity Number

Very Destructive Wind Boundary

Destructive Wind Boundary

Gale Force Wind Boundary

Most Likely Future Track

Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.
Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.
This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.

[h=4]Headline:[/h]Warning now for NT coastal areas between Milingimbi and Port Roper, including Elcho Island and Nhulunbuy

[h=4]Areas affected:[/h]Warning zone: Milingimbi to Port Roper, including Elcho Island, Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.
Watch zone: Goulburn Island to Milingimbi, including Maningrida.

[h=4]Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 12:30 pm CST:[/h]Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 13.7 degrees South, 139.9 degrees East , 170 kilometres west of Cape Keerweer and 380 kilometres east southeast of Nhulunbuy .
Movement: west northwest at 17 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Cyclone Nathan is currently a category 1 system located offshore west of Cape Keerweer in the Gulf of Carpentaria and is moving steadily west northwest.

Tropical Cyclone Nathan will continue to move across the Gulf of Carpentaria today and intensify as it heads towards the east Arnhem Land coast, making landfall on Sunday morning as a category 2 system.

[h=4]Hazards:[/h]GALES, with gusts up to 120 kilometres per hour, are expected to develop on the coast between Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt early Sunday morning. Gales may extend southwards to Port Roper if the cyclone takes a more westerly track. Gales are expected to extend further west along the north coast between Nhulunbuy and Milingimbi later Sunday morning to Sunday afternoon and may extend further west to Goulburn Island overnight on Sunday or early on Monday.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 155 kilometres per hour, extending to approximately 55 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone, may impact coastal and adjacent inland locations between Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt from early Sunday morning, extending to Elcho Island later in the morning.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop across eastern Arnhem Land as the cyclone approaches overnight Saturday and Sunday morning.

Coastal residents between Groote Eylandt and Nhulunbuy are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

[h=4]Recommended Action:[/h]The Territory Controller advises residents from Milingimbi to Port Roper including Elcho Island, Nhulunbuy, Groote Eylandt, Numbulwar and Port Roper, that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter or strong building to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to finalise your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

If you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation, you should determine NOW where you will shelter. This may include arranging to shelter with family, friends or in public emergency shelters, or strong buildings, where available in your community.

This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.

Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at secureNT.

Details:

	Time (CST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	1 pm March 21	1	13.7S	139.9E	55
+6hr	7 pm March 21	1	13.5S	139.0E	70
+12hr	1 am March 22	2	13.1S	138.1E	90
+18hr	7 am March 22	2	12.8S	137.1E	115
+24hr	1 pm March 22	2	12.3S	136.3E	135
+36hr	1 am March 23	1	11.4S	134.9E	175
+48hr	1 pm March 23	tropical low	10.9S	133.8E	210
+60hr	1 am March 24	tropical low	10.8S	133.0E	245
+72hr	1 pm March 24	tropical low	11.1S	132.4E	280

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye


[h=4]Next Issue[/h]The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Saturday