My simple suggestion has always been this: If you can't tell me -- in specific terms -- *why* you need something more than, say, a
$50 Dolica tripod and ball-head, then you don't need something more expensive than a $50 Dolica tripod and ball-head. Maybe at some point in the future you WILL be able to articulate why you need to spend several hundred dollars on a tripod and head, and then it will be time for an upgrade. The difference is, this upgrade will be based on your greatly expanded knowledge, experience and specific needs you have identified, not some far flung fantasy of being called in by National Geographic to go on safari for their upcoming issue. Seriously... If you're an average Joe-Blow sort of photographer, as most of us are, get something like the Dolica. When, and if, National Geographic calls and you seriously need something bigger, faster and more powerful, you won't give two hoots about the $50 you blew on the Dolica that has served you well for so many years. I promise. You have to be able to honestly assess your needs and, truth be told, most needs can be met by a reasonably stable platform that a reasonably priced tripod can offer.
Now, on the flip-side of that coin, if you *can* tell me, in specific terms, why you need to spend several hundred dollars on a tripod and ball-head, by all means I'll shut up and show myself the door.