Hmm... So everything about manual metering is guess work? Have not
Used a flash meter so dunno how that would help or make things easier..
Metering Manual flash is very precise and intentional, not guess work. I meter to 0.1 stop.
Guessing at Manual flash levels is always guess work.
There are two types of metering however, Reflective and Incident.
Meters in cameras (at camera, aimed at subject) are Reflective. They see light reflected from subject.
A subjects white dress or a white background reflect light very well, and will be bright. A reflective meter will see it bright, and will stop down to make it be middle gray (underexposure).
A subjects black dress or a black background reflects light poorly, and will be dark. A reflective meter will see it dark, and will open up to make it be middle gray (overexposure).
This is a fault of TTL metering, but it is simply the way the camera meter always works. It is AT THE CAMERA, and has no other choice. It has ALWAYS worked that way, for many decades. This is a standard skill photographers learn, about the first one.
Reflective meters are even dumber. They see some light, and can measure it, but they can't tell a white thing in dim light from a black thing in bright light. So they make all results be about middle gray, not to bright, not too dark. This is good stuff to know.
Please know that I'm not speaking to you WhiteLight, I've seen a lot of your work, and it is impressive, and going strong. But I am posting in public forum for anyone that it could help. I want to shout (in general): WAKE UP, and learn a thing or two. You will love photography.
An incident meter (which flash meters are) are held at the subjects position, but aimed at the camera, and never sees the subject (not affected by the subject). It reads the light directly, that light which is falling on the subject. These incident meters are not affected by the subject, and they are generally very accurate. No difficulties. But less convenient, they only work from the subjects position.
TTL metering probably works to 1/6 stop, but it is necessarily reflective. So is the camera's sunlight metering, same thing, reflective. Affected by the reflectivity of the subjects colors. So reflective meters are always questionable, we have to think it out, but incident meters are rock solid.
People say to expose correctly, then lower the exposure by two stops or so and then to fill with flash.. haven't really had too much success..
Have read quite a bit to be hand honest, but that everything clicking in place ain't happening!
That sounds like fill flash in bright sun, and -2EV is pretty close for TTL mode.
However, my suspicion is this:
You are using a SB-700, which does not have a TTL vs TTL BL menu, and it does TTL BL by default (unless Spot Metering, which is TTL). So -2EV is about right for TTL, but you are not using TTL.
TTL BL tries to do this -2 EV (fill in bright sun situation) Automatically itself. That is what TTL BL is, balanced means reducing flash for the ambient. So if you also set -2 EV FC, then it will do about -4 EV, which is about zero flash, insignificant.
For SB-700 and its TTL BL, start there with -0 EV, and tweak from there, if desired. It will be about right, you will like it.
If you had actual TTL mode (for example, your Spot Metering would be), and used 0EV fill in bright sun then, you would overexpose the subject by one stop. Two proper exposures added is 2X. But the purpose of TTL BL is to back off (on that case) by about 2 stops. Good stuff to know.
Read
Four Flash Photography Basics we must know - Flash pictures are Double Exposures, it is all there. See esp towards the end.