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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Scott Murray" data-source="post: 430945" data-attributes="member: 9753">AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGYTROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN[h=3]TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP[/h][h=3]Tropical Cyclone Nathan[/h]Issued at 4:05 pm CST Sunday 22 March 2015. Refer to latest Tropical Cyclone Advice.<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDD65001.png?1427006125760" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />[h=2]Community Threat[/h]Warning ZoneGales within 24 hours<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/warning-zone.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Watch ZoneGales from 24-48 hours<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/watch-zone.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />[h=2]Past Cyclone Details[/h]Past Location and Intensity Number<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/location-past.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Past Track and Movement<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/track-past.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />[h=2]Current Cyclone Details[/h]Current Location and Intensity Number<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/location-current.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Very Destructive Winds<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/very-destructive-current.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Destructive Winds<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/destructive-current.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Gale Force Winds<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/gale-force-current.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />[h=2]Forecast Cyclone Details(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)[/h]Forecast Location and Intensity Number<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/location-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Very Destructive Wind Boundary<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/very-destructive-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Destructive Wind Boundary<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/destructive-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Gale Force Wind Boundary<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/gale-force-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Most Likely Future Track<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/track-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/likely-range-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.[h=4]Headline:[/h]Tropical Cyclone Nathan continues to move northwest across Arnhem Bay, west of Nhulunbuy[h=4]Areas affected:[/h]Warning zone: Croker Island to Cape Shield, including Goulburn Island, Maningrida, Milingimbi, Elcho Island, Ramingining, Gapuwiyak and Nhulunbuy.Watch zone: Croker Island to Cape Don and Point Stuart to Gunbalanya.[h=4]Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 3:30 pm CST:[/h]Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour. Location: within 20 kilometres of 12.2 degrees South, 136.1 degrees East , 75 kilometres west of Nhulunbuy and 55 kilometres east southeast of Galiwinku . Movement: west northwest at 15 kilometres per hour .The centre of Tropical Cyclone Nathan is moving across Arnhem Bay, west of Nhulunbuy. Cyclone Nathan will continue moving west northwest with the DESTRUCTIVE CORE approaching Elcho Island late this afternoon.Cyclone Nathan is expected to slowly weaken as it moves westward parallel to the Top End north coast during Monday and Tuesday.[h=4]Hazards:[/h]DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 150 kilometres per hour, extending to approximately 40 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone, are currently being experienced over the Gove Peninsula. Destructive winds will extend west to Gapuwiyak and Elcho Island this evening.GALES, with gusts up to 120 kilometres per hour, are occuring over northeast Arnhem Land, extending west to Elcho Island. Gales are expected to extend further west to Milingimbi and Maningrida during this evening and may extend west to Croker Island overnight or on Monday morning if the system takes a more westerly track. Gales may extend further west to Cape Don and Point Stuart later on Monday . Winds are expected to ease below gale force this later this evening along the east Arnhem Land coast.HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, across coastal parts of northern Arnhem Land as the cyclone moves westwards.A STORM TIDE is expected between Elcho Island and Cape Shield. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.[h=4]Recommended Action:[/h]The Territory Controller advises that communities currently in shelter should remain until advised by local authorities that the ALL CLEAR has been given.DO NOT drive or move about outside, you will be advised by the Territory Controller, when it is safe to do so.REPEATING: CONDITIONS ARE STILL AT A DANGEROUS LEVEL, REMAIN IN SHELTER.Residents from Elcho Island to Milingimbi are advised that the PUBLIC SHELTER IS NOW OPEN at Elcho Island, Milingimbi, Nhulunbuy and Gapuwiyak.Now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter area. If you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should PROCEED IMMEDIATELY to shelter with family, friends, or one of the local emergency shelters. Take your emergency kit with you.A CYCLONE IS APPROACHING AND THE PUBLIC SHELTER IN THE COMMUNITY OF MILINGIMBI IS NOW OPEN. MAKE YOUR DECISION QUICKLY AS WINDS ARE SHORTLY EXPECTED TO REACH A DANGEROUS LEVEL.Residents from Milingimbi to Goulburn Island, including Maningrida and Milingimbi, are advised that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter or strong building to use.You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.For residents under Watch from Croker Island to Cape Don, including Croker Island and Gunbalanya to Point Stuart.Communities under Watch are advised that now is the time to finalise your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.If you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation, you should determine NOW where you will shelter. This may include arranging to shelter with family, friends or in public emergency shelters, or strong buildings, where available in your community.This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at <a href="http://www.securent.nt.gov.au" target="_blank">secureNT</a>.Details: <table style='width: 100%'><tr><th> </th><th>Time (CST)</th><th>Intensity Category</th><th>Latitude (decimal deg.)</th><th>Longitude (decimal deg.)</th><th>Estimated Position Accuracy (km)</th></tr><tr><td>0hr</td><td>4 pm March 22</td><td>2</td><td>12.2S</td><td>136.1E</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>+6hr</td><td>10 pm March 22</td><td>2</td><td>11.7S</td><td>135.5E</td><td>40</td></tr><tr><td>+12hr</td><td>4 am March 23</td><td>3</td><td>11.3S</td><td>134.9E</td><td>65</td></tr><tr><td>+18hr</td><td>10 am March 23</td><td>3</td><td>11.0S</td><td>134.4E</td><td>85</td></tr><tr><td>+24hr</td><td>4 pm March 23</td><td>3</td><td>10.9S</td><td>134.0E</td><td>110</td></tr><tr><td>+36hr</td><td>4 am March 24</td><td>2</td><td>11.1S</td><td>133.5E</td><td>145</td></tr><tr><td>+48hr</td><td>4 pm March 24</td><td>1</td><td>11.7S</td><td>132.9E</td><td>180</td></tr><tr><td>+60hr</td><td>4 am March 25</td><td>tropical low</td><td>12.3S</td><td>132.4E</td><td>220</td></tr><tr><td>+72hr</td><td>4 pm March 25</td><td>tropical low</td><td>12.9S</td><td>131.7E</td><td>255</td></tr></table>Tropical Cyclone information is also available in <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/" target="_blank">MetEye</a>[h=4]Next Issue[/h]The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Sunday</blockquote>

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