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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Scott Murray" data-source="post: 430776" data-attributes="member: 9753">Getting closer,AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGYTROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN[h=3]TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP[/h][h=3]Tropical Cyclone Nathan[/h]Issued at 6:09 am CST Sunday 22 March 2015. Refer to latest Tropical Cyclone Advice.<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDD65001.png?1426970404336" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />[h=2]Community Threat[/h]Warning ZoneGales within 24 hours<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/warning-zone.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Watch ZoneGales from 24-48 hours<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/watch-zone.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />[h=2]Past Cyclone Details[/h]Past Location and Intensity Number<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/location-past.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Past Track and Movement<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/track-past.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />[h=2]Current Cyclone Details[/h]Current Location and Intensity Number<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/location-current.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Very Destructive Winds<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/very-destructive-current.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Destructive Winds<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/destructive-current.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Gale Force Winds<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/gale-force-current.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />[h=2]Forecast Cyclone Details(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)[/h]Forecast Location and Intensity Number<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/location-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Very Destructive Wind Boundary<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/very-destructive-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Destructive Wind Boundary<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/destructive-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Gale Force Wind Boundary<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/gale-force-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Most Likely Future Track<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/track-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/likely-range-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.[h=4]Headline:[/h]Tropical Cyclone Nathan expected to make landfall within the next 6 hours on the northeast Arnhem coast[h=4]Areas affected:[/h]Warning zone: Goulburn Island to Groote Eylandt including Maningrida, Milingimbi, Elcho Island, Gapuwiyak, Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt .Watch zone: Goulburn Island to Croker Island, including Goulburn Island .[h=4]Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 5:30 am CST:[/h]Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 110 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 155 kilometres per hour. Location: within 20 kilometres of 12.9 degrees South, 137.2 degrees East , 90 kilometres south southeast of Nhulunbuy and 140 kilometres northeast of Alyangula . Movement: west northwest at 16 kilometres per hour .Tropical Cyclone Nathan has intensified into a category 2 system and is located just offshore from the northeast Arnhem coast. Cyclone Nathan will continue moving west northwest with the DESTRUCTIVE CORE expected to move onto the coast between Cape Shield and Nhulunbuy during the next few hours. Cyclone Nathan will continue crossing northeast Arnhem during today then begin to weaken as it moves westward parallel to the Top End north coast during Monday.[h=4]Hazards:[/h]GALES, with gusts up to 120 kilometres per hour, are likely to be occuring along the coast between Nhulunbuy and Cape Shield. Gales are expected to extend to Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt this morning and extend further to Elcho Island, inlcuding Gapuwiyak later this morning and afternoon. Gales are expected to extend further west to Maningrida during Sunday afternoon or evening and may extend west to Crocker Island overnight on Sunday or Monday morning. DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 155 kilometres per hour, extending to approximately 40 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone, is expected to impact coastal and adjacent inland locations between Nhulunbuy and Cape Shield this morning, extending to Gapuwiyak later this morning and possibly to Elcho Island depending on how quickly the cyclone weakens after landfall.HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop across coastal parts of eastern Arnhem Land as the cyclone approaches during Sunday.Coastal residents between Groote Eylandt and Nhulunbuy are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.[h=4]Recommended Action:[/h]The Territory Controller advises residents from Groote Eylandt to Nhulunbuy to TAKE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT drive or move about outside, you will be advised by the Territory Controller when it is safe to do so. REPEATING: CONDITIONS from Groote Eylandt to Nhulunbuy ARE NOW AT A DANGEROUS LEVEL, TAKE SHELTER NOW. The Territory Controller advises residents from Gapuwiyak to Maningrida, including Elcho Island and Milingimbi that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter or strong building to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.For residents from Maningrida to Croker Island, including Goulburn Island, the Territory Controller advises that now is the time to finalise your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations. If you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation, you should determine NOW where you will shelter. This may include arranging to shelter with family, friends or in public emergency shelters, or strong buildings, where available in your community. This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.Private Sector businesses and organisations still open at this time are strongly advised to consider securing and closing their premises. Employers are reminded of their Duty of Care to ensure the safety of any employees still at work.Details: <table style='width: 100%'><tr><th> </th><th>Time (CST)</th><th>Intensity Category</th><th>Latitude (decimal deg.)</th><th>Longitude (decimal deg.)</th><th>Estimated Position Accuracy (km)</th></tr><tr><td>0hr</td><td>6 am March 22</td><td>2</td><td>12.9S</td><td>137.2E</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>+6hr</td><td>12 pm March 22</td><td>2</td><td>12.4S</td><td>136.3E</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>+12hr</td><td>6 pm March 22</td><td>1</td><td>11.9S</td><td>135.5E</td><td>100</td></tr><tr><td>+18hr</td><td>12 am March 23</td><td>1</td><td>11.4S</td><td>134.9E</td><td>125</td></tr><tr><td>+24hr</td><td>6 am March 23</td><td>1</td><td>11.1S</td><td>134.4E</td><td>145</td></tr><tr><td>+36hr</td><td>6 pm March 23</td><td>tropical low</td><td>10.7S</td><td>133.6E</td><td>185</td></tr><tr><td>+48hr</td><td>6 am March 24</td><td>tropical low</td><td>10.8S</td><td>133.0E</td><td>220</td></tr><tr><td>+60hr</td><td>6 pm March 24</td><td>tropical low</td><td>11.3S</td><td>132.4E</td><td>255</td></tr><tr><td>+72hr</td><td>6 am March 25</td><td>tropical low</td><td>11.8S</td><td>131.9E</td><td>290</td></tr></table>Tropical Cyclone information is also available in <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/" target="_blank">MetEye</a>[h=4]Next Issue[/h]The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 7:00 am CST Sunday</blockquote>

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