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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Scott Murray" data-source="post: 430548" data-attributes="member: 9753">AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGYTROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN[h=3]TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP[/h][h=3]Tropical Cyclone Nathan[/h]Issued at 1:49 pm CST Saturday 21 March 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 81.<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDD65001.png?1426911608908" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />[h=2]Community Threat[/h]Warning ZoneGales within 24 hours<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/warning-zone.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Watch ZoneGales from 24-48 hours<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/watch-zone.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />[h=2]Past Cyclone Details[/h]Past Location and Intensity Number<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/location-past.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Past Track and Movement<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/track-past.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />[h=2]Current Cyclone Details[/h]Current Location and Intensity Number<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/location-current.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Very Destructive Winds<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/very-destructive-current.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Destructive Winds<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/destructive-current.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Gale Force Winds<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/gale-force-current.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />[h=2]Forecast Cyclone Details(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)[/h]Forecast Location and Intensity Number<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/location-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Very Destructive Wind Boundary<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/very-destructive-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Destructive Wind Boundary<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/destructive-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Gale Force Wind Boundary<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/gale-force-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Most Likely Future Track<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/track-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/likely-range-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.[h=4]Headline:[/h]Warning now for NT coastal areas between Milingimbi and Port Roper, including Elcho Island and Nhulunbuy[h=4]Areas affected:[/h]Warning zone: Milingimbi to Port Roper, including Elcho Island, Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.Watch zone: Goulburn Island to Milingimbi, including Maningrida.[h=4]Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 12:30 pm CST:[/h]Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour. Location: within 55 kilometres of 13.7 degrees South, 139.9 degrees East , 170 kilometres west of Cape Keerweer and 380 kilometres east southeast of Nhulunbuy . Movement: west northwest at 17 kilometres per hour .Tropical Cyclone Nathan is currently a category 1 system located offshore west of Cape Keerweer in the Gulf of Carpentaria and is moving steadily west northwest.Tropical Cyclone Nathan will continue to move across the Gulf of Carpentaria today and intensify as it heads towards the east Arnhem Land coast, making landfall on Sunday morning as a category 2 system.[h=4]Hazards:[/h]GALES, with gusts up to 120 kilometres per hour, are expected to develop on the coast between Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt early Sunday morning. Gales may extend southwards to Port Roper if the cyclone takes a more westerly track. Gales are expected to extend further west along the north coast between Nhulunbuy and Milingimbi later Sunday morning to Sunday afternoon and may extend further west to Goulburn Island overnight on Sunday or early on Monday.DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts up to 155 kilometres per hour, extending to approximately 55 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone, may impact coastal and adjacent inland locations between Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt from early Sunday morning, extending to Elcho Island later in the morning.Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop across eastern Arnhem Land as the cyclone approaches overnight Saturday and Sunday morning.Coastal residents between Groote Eylandt and Nhulunbuy are specifically warned of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.[h=4]Recommended Action:[/h]The Territory Controller advises residents from Milingimbi to Port Roper including Elcho Island, Nhulunbuy, Groote Eylandt, Numbulwar and Port Roper, that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter or strong building to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to finalise your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.If you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation, you should determine NOW where you will shelter. This may include arranging to shelter with family, friends or in public emergency shelters, or strong buildings, where available in your community.This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at <a href="http://www.securent.nt.gov.au" target="_blank">secureNT</a>.Details: <table style='width: 100%'><tr><th> </th><th>Time (CST)</th><th>Intensity Category</th><th>Latitude (decimal deg.)</th><th>Longitude (decimal deg.)</th><th>Estimated Position Accuracy (km)</th></tr><tr><td>0hr</td><td>1 pm March 21</td><td>1</td><td>13.7S</td><td>139.9E</td><td>55</td></tr><tr><td>+6hr</td><td>7 pm March 21</td><td>1</td><td>13.5S</td><td>139.0E</td><td>70</td></tr><tr><td>+12hr</td><td>1 am March 22</td><td>2</td><td>13.1S</td><td>138.1E</td><td>90</td></tr><tr><td>+18hr</td><td>7 am March 22</td><td>2</td><td>12.8S</td><td>137.1E</td><td>115</td></tr><tr><td>+24hr</td><td>1 pm March 22</td><td>2</td><td>12.3S</td><td>136.3E</td><td>135</td></tr><tr><td>+36hr</td><td>1 am March 23</td><td>1</td><td>11.4S</td><td>134.9E</td><td>175</td></tr><tr><td>+48hr</td><td>1 pm March 23</td><td>tropical low</td><td>10.9S</td><td>133.8E</td><td>210</td></tr><tr><td>+60hr</td><td>1 am March 24</td><td>tropical low</td><td>10.8S</td><td>133.0E</td><td>245</td></tr><tr><td>+72hr</td><td>1 pm March 24</td><td>tropical low</td><td>11.1S</td><td>132.4E</td><td>280</td></tr></table>Tropical Cyclone information is also available in <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/" target="_blank">MetEye</a>[h=4]Next Issue[/h]The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Saturday</blockquote>

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