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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Scott Murray" data-source="post: 430452" data-attributes="member: 9753">Up date...AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGYTROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN[h=3]TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP[/h][h=3]Tropical Cyclone Nathan[/h]Issued at 7:34 am CST Saturday 21 March 2015. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 79.<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDD65001.png?1426889085585" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />[h=2]Community Threat[/h]Warning ZoneGales within 24 hours<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/warning-zone.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Watch ZoneGales from 24-48 hours<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/watch-zone.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />[h=2]Past Cyclone Details[/h]Past Location and Intensity Number<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/location-past.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Past Track and Movement<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/track-past.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />[h=2]Current Cyclone Details[/h]Current Location and Intensity Number<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/location-current.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Very Destructive Winds<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/very-destructive-current.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Destructive Winds<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/destructive-current.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Gale Force Winds<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/gale-force-current.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />[h=2]Forecast Cyclone Details(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)[/h]Forecast Location and Intensity Number<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/location-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Very Destructive Wind Boundary<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/very-destructive-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Destructive Wind Boundary<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/destructive-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Gale Force Wind Boundary<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/gale-force-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Most Likely Future Track<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/track-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre<img src="http://www.bom.gov.au/images/cyclone/track-legend/likely-range-forecast.png" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" />The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.[h=4]Headline:[/h]Cyclone Nathan is moving away from Cape York, expected to impact the east coast of the Top End early on Sunday[h=4]Areas affected:[/h]Warning zone: Nhulunbuy to Port Roper, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt (Northern Territory) and Pormpuraaw to Aurukun (Queensland).Watch zone: Goulburn Island to Nhulunbuy, including Elcho Island and Maningrida.[h=4]Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 6:30 am CST:[/h]Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour. Location: within 45 kilometres of 13.9 degrees South, 140.8 degrees East , 70 kilometres west of Cape Keerweer and 475 kilometres east southeast of Nhulunbuy . Movement: west northwest at 19 kilometres per hour .Tropical Cyclone Nathan is currently a weak category 1 system located offshore from Cape Keerweer in the Gulf of Carpentaria and is moving steadily west northwest.Tropical cyclone Nathan will continue to move across the Gulf of Carpentaria today and intensify as it heads towards the east Arnhem land coast, making landfall on Sunday morning as a category 2 system.[h=4]Hazards:[/h]GALES, with gusts to 90 kilometres per hour, currently extend out to approximately 75 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone, and are expected to continue for the next few hours about western Cape York Peninsula between Aurukun and Pormpuraaw in Queensland. These conditions will ease as the cyclone moves further away into the Gulf of Carpentaria.GALES, with gusts to 125 kilometres per hour, are expected to impact Groote Eylandt and possibly extend to coastal and adjacent inland locations between Nhulunbuy and Numbulwar in the Northern Territory early Sunday morning. Gales may extend southwards to Port Roper if the cyclone takes a more westerly track. Gales are expected to extend further west along the north coast between Nhulunbuy and Milingimbi later Sunday morning to Sunday afternoon and may extend further west to Goulburn Island overnight on Sunday or early on Monday.DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 155 kilometres per hour, extending to approximately 150 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone, may impact Groote Eylandt as well as coastal and adjacent inland locations between Nhulunbuy and Port Roper from Sunday morning.Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, will continue across parts of western Cape York Peninsula this morning and will clear later this morning as the cyclone moves away.Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop across eastern Arnhem Land as the cyclone approaches overnight Saturday and Sunday morning.Tides on the western Cape York Peninsula coast may be above normal this morning, particularly north of the cyclone's track, but are not expected to exceed the highest tide of the year.[h=4]Recommended Action:[/h]For Queensland:People in coastal areas between Aurukun and Pormpuraaw should remain inside until the cyclone has passed and listen to the next advice.- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (<a href="http://www.disaster.qld.gov.au" target="_blank">www.disaster.qld.gov.au</a>)- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).For Northern Territory:The Territory Controller advises residents from Nhulunbuy to Port Roper including Nhulunbuy, Cape Shield, Groote Eylandt, Numbulwar and Port Roper, that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter or strong building to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to finalise your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.If you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation, you should determine NOW where you will shelter. This may include arranging to shelter with family, friends or in public emergency shelters, or strong buildings, where available in your community.This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.Please ensure that friends, family and neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals to the area.Further advice on cyclone emergencies is available at <a href="http://www.securent.nt.gov.au" target="_blank">secureNT</a>.Details: <table style='width: 100%'><tr><th> </th><th>Time (CST)</th><th>Intensity Category</th><th>Latitude (decimal deg.)</th><th>Longitude (decimal deg.)</th><th>Estimated Position Accuracy (km)</th></tr><tr><td>0hr</td><td>7 am March 21</td><td>1</td><td>13.9S</td><td>140.8E</td><td>45</td></tr><tr><td>+6hr</td><td>1 pm March 21</td><td>1</td><td>13.7S</td><td>139.9E</td><td>70</td></tr><tr><td>+12hr</td><td>7 pm March 21</td><td>1</td><td>13.5S</td><td>139.0E</td><td>90</td></tr><tr><td>+18hr</td><td>1 am March 22</td><td>2</td><td>13.2S</td><td>138.1E</td><td>115</td></tr><tr><td>+24hr</td><td>7 am March 22</td><td>2</td><td>12.8S</td><td>137.1E</td><td>135</td></tr><tr><td>+36hr</td><td>7 pm March 22</td><td>1</td><td>11.8S</td><td>135.5E</td><td>175</td></tr><tr><td>+48hr</td><td>7 am March 23</td><td>1</td><td>11.1S</td><td>134.3E</td><td>210</td></tr><tr><td>+60hr</td><td>7 pm March 23</td><td>tropical low</td><td>10.8S</td><td>133.3E</td><td>245</td></tr><tr><td>+72hr</td><td>7 am March 24</td><td>tropical low</td><td>10.8S</td><td>132.6E</td><td>280</td></tr></table>Tropical Cyclone information is also available in <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/" target="_blank">MetEye</a>[h=4]Next Issue[/h]The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 am CST Saturday</blockquote>

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